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Most of us are happy to have the presidential elections behind us. But I’m left with one niggling question. What happened to gold as an American political hot button? Steve Forbes, the only candidate who suggested at least a partial return to the gold standard, was one of the first big losers. Not only are Americans disinterested in the possibility of using gold reserves to limit government deficits and other economic problems, they seem tepid about gold as an investment. The fact that gold prices have been flat well under $400 per ounce for an extended period of time has caused some people to lose interest. Economists say there is no sign of inflation in the myriad numbers they shuffle through, so why use gold as an inflation hedge? What’s to hedge? But if there ever was a time to acquire gold at a bargain price, it would be when people believe inflation is dead. Either Americans are foolish enough to think that inflation will never return, or they don’t think gold can protect them anymore. As gold's perceived power to guarantee economic safety dwindles, its commodity value is on the rise. The only good gold is gold that can be sold for filling teeth, arthritis injections and as an efficient conductor of electricity in computer components. This seems sad, but is the sadness just a reluctance to give up old ideas, or is it an omen? Historian Will Durant once wrote, "Gold and civilization wax and wane together." He was thinking of the decline of the Roman Empire after the Romans foolishly depleted gold mines in the provinces and didn’t search for replacements. Despite the blasé attitude toward gold in the United States except among miners the rest of the world seems ablaze with interest. Gold bars at $1,470 are hot sellers at the massive duty-free Dubai airport bazaar, where gold accounts for 18 percent of all sales. Although strict anti-hoarding laws exist in most parts of the world, more than half of the all gold ever mined is privately held. People are willing to take financial risk and short-term losses to hoard gold against the possibility of inflation, war or other insecurities. The trust in gold is not entirely primitive since it is still accepted for payment of debt in every country in the world. At regular intervals the price of gold rises on world markets, and all the world investors, politicians and ordinary citizens snap to attention. A rise in gold prices still seems to imply that something important is happening. Nobody knows for sure what made gold prices rise in the two weeks between Dec. 31, 1995 and Jan. 11, 1996. The gold fix topped $400 per ounce, its highest level in five and a half years. Last January, gold stock prices rose 2 percent, while the Standard & Poor's gold index rose 5 percent and gold mutual funds were up 13 percent. Some say it was inflation fears. Others say low gold production drove the price higher. Experts claim there is a worldwide gold deficit of more than 1,000 tons, a situation that could send the gold price rocketing at any time. Mutual fund investors have already profited from the notion that there is a gold shortage especially for industrial uses. By scouting foreign exchanges and investing in risky mines in remote parts of the world, The Midas Fund made a nearly 50 percent return on its pool of cash in 1995. Midas and funds like it have replaced the flamboyant grub stake investors of the 19th century gold booms. They finance the current gold rushes in Russia, South America, Canada, Indonesia, Cuba and Africa. Gold rushes have always had a disorienting, sometimes violent, effect and that has not changed. In both developed and under developed countries, conflict rages between the small entrepreneurial miner and the international mining corporations. Environmentalists and big corporate miners also are at odds. It is just such a dispute that made the U.S. Desert Protection Act so contentious last year. The act was meant to guard the desert from overuse and abuse, but the law's critics say it gave U.S. mineral riches virtually free of charge to giant mining concerns, many of them foreign owned. Another dramatic struggle is underway on the island of Papua New Guinea. In 1962 Indonesia annexed the island, renaming it Irian Jaya. Five years later Indonesian President Suharto signed the first foreign joint venture gold-mining agreement. As part of the deal, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. promised to finance community development for local tribes. Amungme tribe members say the company built them a village of plywood and tar paper shacks, then constructed a modern compound for its foreign employees. The Amungme also claim that smelter sludge is turning their pristine rivers and forests into dark, muddy swamps. The Free Papua movement was born, and in 1994 rebels gunned down a Freeport employee. Indonesian army troops rushed in and killed at least 16 tribesmen. Some are still missing. Not long ago a group of British environmental scientists were captured (and later released) by the rebels. Although gold exploration is pursued aggressively around the world, confusion remains over the precious metal's importance in today’s economies. Jude Wanniski, an advisor to Steve Forbes, preaches the traditional view. "Gold is a proxy for all prices," says Wanniski. With the U.S. Federal Reserve conducting monetary policy largely by the seat of its pants, he adds, "We need a single known rule for central banks." Critics counter that a gold standard does nothing except protect the wealthy from inflation. A gold standard keeps economic expansion in check and limits a rise in the standard of living. Furthermore, at current population levels, there isn’t enough gold on the planet for the gold standard to work. The price of gold would have to rise to more than $20,000 per ounce. Yet international interest in gold suggests that it still has a role in economic matters. Business leaders are learning how hard it is to find a common denominator of trust. Gold is the one currency everyone believes in. Although conditions rule against a fixed, legislated gold standard, gold may grow ever deeper roots as a shadow world currency. And, happily, there are signs that some people hold on to old dreams. The Price-Costco warehouse store in Victorville recently was selling a solar-powered river panning gizmo for weekend prospectors. I almost bought one. Janet Lowe has authored seven books, including "Dividends Don't Lie: Finding Value in Blue Chip Stocks," which she co-authored with Geraldine Weiss. Her most recent book, "Value Investing Made Easy," was published by McGraw-Hill and is available in local bookstores. It also can be ordered from an Internet bookstore, amazon.com. |