The telecommunications industry is on the brink of a major upheaval, one that will profoundly affect San Diego. Around the globe, market forces and governments are pushing inexorably toward a truly competitive telecommunications environment replacing the monopoly that has been a way of life for generations. The convergence of wireless communications and the Internet will drive the creation of an unprecedented potpourri of products and services. These, in turn, will be made possible by an astounding array of new technologies in the radio-communications and computer fields.
      Some people believe we already have competition in the wireless industry. They point to the 50 million wireless subscribers already served by at least two carriers in all U.S. cities and to the aggressive long-distance pricing wars. They note that it is the nature of telecommunications to offer new flexibility, new freedom to humanity. And even more so with wireless, where this freedom to communicate from afar comes with no wires - no strings.
      But I suggest that, compared to other industries, competition hasn't yet begun. We are bound by a more rigid constraint than wires or strings. The chains of our monopolistic history bind us more rigidly than wires ever could. We have been locked in the "Copper Cage" (a term coined by George Gilder) for so long, we still sit within its bars, imprisoned by our own perceptions of what could be.
      The fact is, there is little competition in telecommunications today. The cellular and emerging PCS networks still carry less than 1 percent of the voice traffic in the U.S. Nor do we have much true choice in long distance, where the marketers and service providers offer virtually identical service - where most of the creativity is in the pricing plans, not the product.
      Here is a snapshot of the competitive telecom world that is coming within the next 10 years, of the technologies that will fuel that competition, and the impact that this new era will have on San Diego.

Bring On The Competition
      Competition always has resulted in choices - in a frenetic, dynamic striving of each supplier to offer something, anything, that the others do not. Just look at the choices facing the car buyer today: the incredible diversity of models, accessories, features. Think about the multiplicity of dealers, repair shops, even of ways to pay for the vehicle.
      And so it will be with telecommunications that soon will allow choices beyond imagination. The consumers of the future will be able to consider, separately, their need for data and voice communications. Most communications will be in the form of data, and most of that will be carried over the Internet since data communications are notoriously inefficient and costly on lines optimized for voice (the familiar switched telco lines). The data offerings will include wired data from cable operators, telephone companies and perhaps the local utility company.
      Those who use the network primarily for e-mail will find very low-cost providers offering low data speeds. The Web surfers will find offerings where large amounts of information can be retrieved from the World Wide Web in response to brief requests made on a keyboard or through a voice interpreter. But most users will be using the Web for videoconferences or for interactive work sessions and will need large data rates going out and coming back.
      The wireless data offerings, which ultimately will garner the bulk of the consumer data market, will offer similar services but with a major difference. Most will be untethered. The consumer on one kind of service will have the ability to move about the country, stop virtually anywhere, and use a computer with wireless connection. Another service will offer very low data rates from moving vehicles for emergency service, real time trip routing based upon current traffic conditions, and a host of features targeted at automobile drivers.
      The consumer searching for voice service will find an equally broad array of services and service providers. The least expensive way to deliver POTS ("plain old telephone service") will be wireless. For those who move around, there will be services with varying degrees of mobility (that is, how long can a continuous conversation be maintained as the user moves about) with various degrees of roaming (you can roam the world if you can afford it, but do you need to roam the world?), and with varying levels of voice quality. Few people will need both a home telephone and a personal wireless phone for voice communications; they'll take a do-it-all pocket phone with them.
      I won’t dwell on the user terminals, the "phones" of the future. Most of them will be computers, but not recognizable as such by today’s standards. The keyboard (whose only asset is that it forces a desirable quality of terseness on rotten typists like me) will disappear in favor of "voice recognizers." The personal display will present an image bigger and better than CRTs from a gadget not much larger than your eyeglasses.

The Technologies Of Choice
      The technological workhorse of the telecommunications upheaval will continue to be the microprocessor. Chip density will continue to double every 18 months or so, speed of operation will move to over 1000 MHz, cost will drop, and power drain will make powerful battery-driven subscriber equipment a reality.
      The most interesting changes, however, will be in the wireless field. Intelligent radio systems will organize themselves, smart antenna systems will focus radio-frequency energy toward the people for whom the energy is intended, instead of polluting the radio environment as done by today’s cellular systems, and superconducting filters will keep the plethora of new systems from interfering with each other.
      The overall impact of this explosion of new technology will be most apparent in the number of companies that supply devices, products and systems. No longer will a few companies dominate all technologies and systems. There will be too many technologies and too many systems. The opportunities for new companies will be extraordinary.

San Diego’s Role
      The San Diego area, while still far behind Silicon Valley in its ability to incubate and fund start-up companies, is demonstrating a surprising vitality in the area of wireless systems and technology. And though the local scene is anchored by such wireless powers as Qualcomm, Hughes and Nokia, a number of vibrant smaller companies have posted "Open for Business" signs throughout the North County Coastal corridor and inland to Rancho Bernardo.
      Never ones to let an emerging electronics industry pass them by, powerful Japanese interests have joined with stateside companies to push the industry forward. Sony Wireless Telecommunications Co., Kyocera, Nippondenso, Uniden and Kokosai have joined the local fray, while Korean monoliths like LG Infocomm and Samsung have established beachheads here as well.
      Many companies are focused on the user terminal (paging device, phone handset, palmtop computer). Comquest Technologies and Peregrine Semiconductor are shrinking the "chip sets" to make handsets smaller and more powerful. Novatel is working on protocols that transmit data from smart phones and hand-held PCs to wireless networks, NDC Voice on pagers that transmit voice instead of data, and Jabra on an "in-ear" microphone that has the potential to make "hands free" really work.
      On the network infrastructure side, ArrayComm and ADC Wireless are pushing the envelope on base station technologies, refining traditional technologies to make our networks increasingly efficient. Cadence makes software that helps designers create the new technologies, and Qtron assembles high-quality PC boards.
      Is there enough business to support this new generation of wireless companies? The answer is a resounding yes. The telecommunications industry will generate a trillion dollars in equipment revenue alone in the next 10 years. That growth can, and will, accommodate the new host of companies emerging in San Diego. While Silicon Valley remains dominant in the computer and Internet domains, San Diego’s Wireless Valley is staking its own claim on the telecommunications revolution.

From his Del Mar offices, Martin Cooper serves as chairman of ArrayComm Inc. in San Jose. Cooper was the former Motorola visionary and inventor who developed the world's first cellular telephone in 1973.