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Because it is so easy, we always have measured our county by its boundaries: the Pacific Ocean on the west, mountains on the east, Camp Pendleton to the north and, to the south, the International Border.
For decades San Diego County, which now claims 2.75 million residents, has grown by an average of 40,000 persons per year, two thirds of that from in-migration, 70 percent of which has been in the North City and North County.
But as our sleepy county has grown up and become a metropolitan giant, its identity is linked with our multinational companies, such as Qualcomm and, now, Gateway; our Pacific Rim trade; and our multi-ethnic demographics. The measurement of who we are must include our neighbors to the south in Tijuana, a city that boasts a population of 1.75 million. Combining our county and Tijuana and its outlying cities and neighborhoods creates a regional population of 4 million, one which will continue to grow significantly. At the least, Tijuana and San Diego are intertwined through:
- Job interdependence
- Imports and exports
- Tourism
- Industrial production
- Education
- Family ties
- Sports marketing
- Law enforcement
Consider that about 54 million legal crossings are recorded each year, including more than 19 million vehicles, at the International Border at San Ysidro. Tijuana residents make about 1.5 million journeys to the San Diego area each month for the primary purpose of shopping. They also visit family and friends, go to jobs and visit tourist attractions. Southbound travelers visit Tijuana retailers and restaurants, the area's beaches and its industrial plants.
Baja Californians have become very influential to the development decisions involving major San Diego projects, particularly retail shopping centers. For many years, the Chula Vista regional center has ranked among the highest-performing centers in San Diego County, principally because of the shopping power of Mexican citizens. Similarly, Plaza Bonita regional shopping center was built in the South County with the expectation of strong sales to Mexican consumers.
The peso influence extends to the Mission Valley, Fashion Valley, Horton Plaza and La Jolla shopping areas. A market analysis of any would reveal a great amount of marginality if the measurement of demand were strictly demand from the U.S. side of the market.
New Border Project
Armed with this "peso power" knowledge, at least one San Diego developer has his sights set on fully integrating the U.S. and Mexican markets on a 100-acre site strategically located at the International Border west of the San Ysidro Port of Entry. The project, dubbed the International Gateway of the Americas, slowly but deliberately is emerging as one of the most innovative ever in our joint community. By a show of determination and risk, Sam Marasco and his Landgrant Development Co. are making the rounds on both sides of the border to secure the permits and the enthusiasm of local to Federal regulators from both nations, of prospective tenants and community leaders.
Marasco has proposed a 1.4 million-square-foot commercial mixed-use development with a twist: a privately financed pedestrian river-crossing bridge and a river walk esplanade. It is conceived as a public/private redevelopment of the federal Port of Entry known as Virginia Avenue/El Chaparral. It would link Tijuana's main tourist shopping district, Avenida Revolucion, across the Tijuana River, to a promenade surrounded by an international transit center, hotel, convention and entertainment retail, restaurants, outlet stores, and ultimately, offices housing consulates surrounded by great street scenes and world-class monuments. The project also will include the first world trade center electronics and recreation mart designed to capture Pacific Rim opportunities.
A precedent exists for at least the development opportunity. The proposed project sits in the middle of a region that counts nine large shopping centers south of I-8 on the U.S. side, and 20 large retail centers on the Baja side. Directly across the street from the site sits the San Diego Outlet Center, which has enjoyed great success over the last several years.
A market analysis demonstrates that there still is substantially more demand than is currently being supplied, the base of which includes residents from both sides of the border, as well as tourists. They will travel to the site by foot, trolley, bus and auto, all of which converge at this area.
And the pedestrian bridge will not only be a showcase of art and efficiency, but it is genuinely needed. The current wait for pedestrians at the border usually exceeds one-half hour, often longer. It is a stumbling point, a pedestrian and vehicular traffic jam blocking more than the individuals coming across. It blocks the potential of international trade and creates an ongoing psychological barrier, separating our two cultures. It creates the aura of division when it is so compelling to dispel that notion.
A 1996 San Diego Association of Governments study endorsed the concept of a two-way pedestrian crossing, ranking it as the highest of proposed solutions to the increasing traffic across the San Ysidro Port of Entry. The Sandag study states that the pedestrian crossing accomplishes two objectives:
- It reduces the pressure placed upon the existing ports of entry.
- It provides a high level of visibility and easy access to Avenida Revolucion.
An Imbalance Of Industrial
The potential for interaction within the region is evident by the huge manufacturing infrastructure south of the border. To date, the promise of cross-border trade at the border has really been a one-sided economic miracle. Tijuana now hosts thousands of manufacturing jobs, making it arguably the world's fastest-growing manufacturing area.
One of the most disappointing and fatiguing economic realities is the relative failure of this dynamic activity to fuel U.S. industrial growth on Otay Mesa, which only recently has emerged from a slump, peddling some of the lowest lease rates and industrial land values in San Diego County. It is now starting to emerge where it left off in 1989, wallowing in the long economic recession that laid waste to the many acres of industrial and business parks near the U.S. side of the border. Perhaps one day it will realize its potential.
South County's Residential Emergence
One sign of life is the emergence of South County as the repository for huge new residential development. What began with the brilliant Eastlake project, which still expands in eastern Chula Vista, is now morphing into several large residentially based, master-planned communities that will deliver much-needed housing to a San Diego market hungry for affordable units. Projects including Rancho Del Rey, Sunbow and Otay Ranch, among others, will ultimately change that long balance of development from north to south. Simply put, the largest percentage of San Diego’s new housing over the next decade will be produced in the south, whose areas are now madly planning and grading thousands of lots.
This emerging composition of power and identity is accentuated with such projects as the Olympic Training Center, White Water Canyon water park and the new Coors Amphitheater.
No wonder we ought to be looking across the border for our emergent shared identity. That little Shangri-la that existed in isolation at the southwest corner of the U.S. is emerging as the center of The Californias International Geopolitical Region. Projects like the International Gateway represent a huge leap forward in securing that interactive identity which will play well in all sectors, on both sides of our cultures.
Gary H. London is president of The London Group Realty Advisors Inc., providing real estate consulting and economic analysis. Check him out on the Web at
www.londongroup.com.
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