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The California Department of Finance reports that the population of California will increase by 72 percent — to more than 57 million — in the next 40 years. Southern California will grow by 64 percent to more than 36 million in that same period. By the middle of the next century California could double its current population.
To house these residents some combination of increased urban density and sprawl will occur. In all likelihood urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area will extend continuously from Santa Rosa Valley to Salinas/Monterey, a distance of 150 miles. Development will continue to spill over from the coastal areas into the valleys from Sacramento to Fresno. In the southern portion of the state, urbanization will extend from Santa Barbara to the International Border, a distance of 200 miles. Development will continue to spread into the high desert areas and into the south end of the San Joaquin Valley and into the Coachella Valley.
To adequately support that development, transportation systems will require major investments in freeway improvements and airport capacity. The geographic spread of future urban areas will reduce the effectiveness of the freeways for high-speed intercity travel. As airport congestion increases, delays will make short-distance flights less attractive for intercity travel.
Factors such as these strongly suggest that we explore other means of movement such as upgrading the existing rail lines and the feasibility of high-speed intercity rail service. The future mobility and economic vitality of the state depend on the development of a high-quality, balanced, multimodal transportation system.
The California Senate in 1993 created the Intercity High Speed Rail Commission to examine alternatives for intercity travel in excess of 100 miles with trains capable of speeds faster than 200 miles per hour. That study indicated that alternative technologies exist in Europe and Japan which could achieve the desired speeds with safety and reliability. A statewide system about 680 miles in length, which would connect San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles and San Diego, could be developed at a cost of between $20 billion and $30 billion. This cost can be compared to the estimated statewide costs of possibly $250 billion for freeway and airport expansion over the next 20 years.
Operating revenue for the intercity high-speed train system is projected to exceed operating costs and long-term maintenance. However, the initial capital funding of the right-of-way, rail bed and/or guideway infrastructure would need to rely on public funding. Of the various financing approaches a quarter cent sales tax was identified as a possible source.
The commission report led in 1996 to Senate Bill 1420. This measure created the California High Speed Rail Authority, and charged it with the continuation of the commission's work as well as the tasks of detailed engineering, ridership and alignment studies, preparation of a statewide rail plan and a business plan including the financing for the system. The authority, its staff and consultants have been at work for the past 18 months. At the July meeting, the authority adopted a series of corridor elements for the alignment of the statewide system.
The portion of the state system between Los Angeles Union Station and San Diego has been subject to much debate and study by the authority and the San Diego Association of Governments. This linkage is critical as it will connect Los Angeles with its future population of 31 million, to San Diego with its future population of 5 million, and Northern Baja with its future population of 6 million. The two proposed corridors for connecting these populations are the coastal route along the Interstate 5 alignment of Amtrak and the Interstate 10/Interstate 15 inland route through Riverside.
The coastal route would be the shortest, and potentially have the highest ridership. However, it has the most severe community, environmental and congestion concerns. The existing route, a majority of which is only single track, is used by commuter, Amtrak and freight service to San Diego and the San Diego Port. To upgrade this route would require double tracking, and mitigation efforts consisting of relocation and some tunneling. The high-speed vehicles used on the balance of the state high-speed rail system only could be used on this route if an additional set of tracks were provided or a waiver were obtained from the Federal Rail Authority for operation with freight, either of which appears to be problematic.
The inland route is longer and more costly but it is supported by the communities of Ontario, Riverside, Temecula and Escondido and would serve areas of significant future growth. Further, this route would introduce an alternate transportation service in an area currently served only by freeways. The route is, however, not without significant issues, such as location problems along I-15 south of Escondido and the proposed termination at Qualcomm Stadium.
At the July meeting, the authority voted to support the inland route as it appeared that it was the more certain connection to the balance of the statewide system. The authority stipulated in its approval action that environmental and preliminary engineering work should continue on the coastal route.
The current schedule anticipates delivery of a business and finance plan to the governor's office this December and possible referral to the state legislature in January.
John Fowler was appointed to the High Speed Rail Authority by Gov. Pete Wilson in 1997. For the past 12 years he has been a principal consultant with Rick Engineering Co. and prior to that spent 28 years with the city of San Diego’s Engineering Department and City Manager's office.
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