During the World Fair of 1939 a time capsule filled with items and descriptions of most of what was known at the time was buried. The collection included an article that forecast the next 25 years of American progress and ingenuity. A baby with a dart board would have been more accurate.
    Thomas Watson, the founder of IBM, suggested that in the whole world there would be a demand for five computers. One Brit questioned why America needed telephones, when they had perfectly good messenger boys. Each expert severely underestimated the possibilities of our future.
    The difficulty with predicting the future is that we extrapolate from the past, when our past may have little to do with what is awaiting. Yet on this we are rather certain: Real estate development in this 21st century will be greatly influenced by what we refer to as high technology, meaning everything from faster, smaller, more utilitarian computers to the devices which contain the microchip. These machines will impact most aspects of our lives from decision-making to communications to health care and will change every industry.
    The ubiquity of the technological revolution bears comparison to the industrial revolution of 100 years ago. We are in the midst of a 100-year event that affects everything. When we come out of it, what may result is a new way to live and a redefinition of our quality of life.

    On The 'Home' Front
    The way we live will change forever. This century will give rise to unparalleled independence and access, bringing with it the dawn of truly intelligent homes and communities. Every house will have its own source of fuel. Communications will be wireless. Our homes will still serve their basic functions as the center of our non-work and leisure activities, but they will also take on an increasing role in our work activities.
    The key result of technology in terms of our everyday lives will be our ability to work anywhere, play anywhere and be anywhere. And it won’t matter because we can instantly communicate, calculate, negotiate, pontificate and masticate.
    Intelligent (responsive/smart/thinking) homes and communities will encourage inventiveness. This will have a profound effect on where we live. The urban battle of the day is the suburb vs. the inner city, a debate in which the lexicon of "smart growth" has emerged as the saving approach. We see the term as a loose reference to efficiency of provision of services and infrastructure in the same place where people live and work, including a revival of our urban areas formerly passed over by the suburbs. Better, we believe, would be the term "smarter growth" - for it must be or we will grow more dissatisfied each day with traffic and leaders. We will finally comprehend that cars possess us rather than we them, and that where we work, shop and live will be combined in mixed-use neighborhoods, finally getting rid of the daily commute.
    Physically most of America may not change much. There are 3,000 counties in America, about 2,000 of them rural. They will probably stay the same. But there will be many different Americas.
    The 20th century was characterized by great populations immigrating to the center cities in the first half, and then moving out into the suburbs in its second half. Perhaps many cities have died in the last 50 years, and we expect something similar in the next 50. There will be smart and dumb cities. Some will prosper because of leadership and geography, others will become ghost towns because they failed to "mine" their human resources.

    Suburban Vs. Urban
    The new migration patterns will be far more complex. New areas will be born and others will be recycled. Land will remain very precious. In San Diego, we will reach a point when Southeast and Barrio Logan no longer can be ignored, and they will be reinvigorated.
    The playing field of the future may be a much larger area, beyond the boundaries of suburban vs. inner city, even beyond the definitions of urban versus rural. It will involve the total "footlooseness" of all of us. What problem really is there if we want to live in the mountains way before we retire? Maybe the smart money should be going to Julian. But there is room and desire for mountains, valleys, ocean orientation and "new towns" created by the likes of Corky McMillin. Urban housing by the many wonderful small entrepreneurs in the city will prosper, as well as the larger forces of Olson, Interwest and Bosa.
    The increased freedom to work from home, combined with increased household incomes, will provide more leisure opportunities. A San Diego already blessed with good weather and an industry that encourages vacations, conventions and recreation, ought to be well-primed for much of what matters to an ever-increasing segment of our population.
    San Diego is a high-tech hotbed. Good thing. For the first time in history the richest man in the world (Bill Gates) did not come out of natural resources - he came out of intellectual property. Which brings a new system of values. It seems to us that if we are a community increasingly populated by software engineers, scientists and techies, we also are slated to become an enlightened community - America's finest region - not as a coined phrase, but because we are.

The Authors: San Diego’s leading real estate analysts are, from left, Gary H. London, Sanford R. Goodkin and Alan N. Nevin.

    Adding Five Million People
    The 21st century will be one of greater partnership between public and private sectors. The government will be dragged kicking and screaming into the next century. The politicians have to be smarter about land use. Not just reactive.
    We are optimistic that sooner or later our policy-makers, in the midst of this enlightenment revolution, will turn their attention to regional government. We are a community that will continue to grow, and in all directions. If we continue the pace of growth we have been on for the last quarter of this century, we should add five million to our population. This will make us a community of eight million by the year 2100, not counting tijuana, our potential regional partner.
    All of our growth issues, from water, transportation, environmental quality, law enforcement and health care, will be debated on a regional level. Sometime in this century, preferably very early, we will elect a regional "mayor" and restructure all of our decision-making.
    During the 20th century we built the middle class and compassion for whomever is "lower." In this century we will build the upper middle class. We expect that the millennium will emerge with a great part of our population having financial peace of mind. More Americans will pass on more wealth to their heirs than ever before. That inheritance will result in tremendous peace of mind and an unbelievable next wave in consumer spending, education, culture, charitable giving and leisure.
    We will live much longer, thanks to genetic infusion of health genes, which will eliminate and repair the cancers, clogged arteries and the diseases of our century long before they fester in our bodies. This is the product of biotech. Take a tour of the buildings of Torrey Pines and Campus Point. The stuff of longevity is being created right here. Its results already are stimulating the development of a new style of "retirement" community, one geared to active individuals with a lot of "living" left in their bodies. Given San Diego’s hospitable climate, this type of development will accelerate.

    The Decline Of Mass Transit
    In America's cities today, with the exception of Boston, San Francisco, Chicago and New York, less than 3 percent of the people take mass transit. San Diego will not see a mass transit system transporting us from Carlsbad to Otay Ranch, or anywhere throughout our metropolitan area. Our population centers are not dense enough and we have an inbred culture against riding around in trains. For those reasons, San Diego is going to miss that 20th century transportation solution and move right on with computer controlled personal vehicles.
    The fossil fuel monster, however, will become extinct. Our vehicles soon will be powered by electricity, which will take us where we want on freeways jammed, but not unsafely so, with autos that are computer tailgating at high speeds and communicating with each other. And allowing us to safely drink our lattes without being a road hazard.
    This revolution in high-tech will lead to a re-emphasis on low-tech: the human part including those things dealing with the soul and spiritualism.
    We will see the fall of borders throughout much of this world. This has started in Europe where 13 nations use the same money and there are no passports. Globalization will accelerate. There are today two dozen "first world" countries and more than 100 "third world" countries. Gradually many will join the first world.
    The border that separates San Diego from Tijuana simply can’t last much longer as our economies become intertwined and our needs mesh with their labor and production. Master-planned communities in Baja will attract Southern Californians and speed our mutual understanding and economics.
    Notwithstanding the likelihood of global warming, the dawn of the 21st century is upon us without a Cold War. Maybe that is a good trade-off. And perhaps the possibility of an extended period of great peace. Peace gives opportunity to humankind no matter what the cultural divisions. It also lends itself to development of jobs, homes, communities and all other resources.
    Happy New Century. May it be the best ever!

The authors are real estate strategists and consultants practicing in San Diego.