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San Diego’s upscale housing market |
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As we were mired and depressed in the Southern California recession of 1990 to 1994, most of us failed to see the seeds for immense prosperity that were being sown. Those kernels were in the local high-tech industries, venture capitalism, the stock market and particularly Nasdaq, and the upside potential of real estate. All during the recession, the harbingers of capitalism were laying the groundwork for the creation of immense wealth — wealth that would be spread over tens of thousands of households in our county. Although toasts to Irwin Jacobs are obligatory at almost any get-together in North Coastal County, dozens, perhaps hundreds, of other local firms have created a multitude of millionaires through IPOs, mergers, international investments and just plain profitable business. These successes are now manifesting themselves in the higher reaches of the San Diego’s housing business. During most of the 1990s, a good year for $1 million-plus home sales was 200 to 300, most of them, as usual, in La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe. In 1998, that total grew to almost 400 homes and in 1999, the total number of resales was almost 800. If you include the construction of $1 million-plus custom homes and massive rehabs, the total approaches 1,000. In the boom of the late 1980s, most new upscale homes were sized in the 5,000-square-foot to 7,000-square-foot range. This time around the gold standard is 8,000 square feet to 12,000 square feet, with an unusually large number of homes in the 15,000-plus square-foot range. If you haven't been in a 15,000-square-foot home lately, its size is equivalent to a typical 20-unit apartment building (but is usually more stylish). The geographic spread of $1 million-plus homes has broadened considerably in the past decade as the supply of appropriate lots has been exhausted in the revered 92037 and 92067 zip codes (La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe, respectively). Now it is not at all unusual to see daily $1 million-plus sales reported in Coronado, Poway, Encinitas and Olivenhain. Yet another phenomenon is the exponential expansion of $1 million-plus subdivisions. Three years ago, virtually no tract homes sold for more than $1 million. In 1999, 75 $1 million-plus homes sold in subdivision tracts, mostly in North Coastal County. The vast majority of the new $1 million-plus homes are in the far reaches of 92067. Remember that, at one time, 92067 meant "in the covenant," i.e. the original Rancho Santa Fe with 1,300 homes. Then in the late 1970s, in a brilliant tactical move, Fairbanks Ranch glommed onto the 92067 zip code and added 620 more homes. The battle for those five digits tends to make one think that the U.S. Post Office is subject to sweet talk. One tract actually located in the city of San Diego has somehow wrangled a 92067 for its home owners. I have been told that the very last project to be added to 92067 is Cielo, the new very upscale master-planned community on Del Dios Highway. The first homes there are by Bill Davidson and they border on spectacular in terms of architecture and interior design and are actually a very good value. They are modeled on Lilian Rice architectural styling. In their opening week, they sold 13 of 14 homes at prices between $900,000 and $1.4 million. Even those who aren’t ready to buy, should tour this complex. Another local luxury home builder, Innovative Communities, is in framing for another super project in Cielo. Let me turn to the coast for a moment: Those into real estate minutia are aware that the price per square foot of coastal housing relates to proximity to white water; i.e., seeing the waves. Currently, to tiptoe from home directly onto the sand will mandate a home price tag of about $2,000 per square foot. In La Jolla Shores, a lot (or a tear-down) on the sand will cost $4 million to $5 million. Last month, a 4,200-square-foot home on the sand sold for $8.5 million. And in recent months, a similar home in Camino de la Costa sold for $15.5 million, plus another goodly sum for the furnishing. One of my clients is building a "spec" mansion in the Shores. It will be 8,500 square feet, with permanent views, one block from the beach, and the price is value ranged at $5.1 million to $5.5 million. On a dollar per square foot basis ($600-650), it’s virtually a bargain. That includes an elevator in the main house and a guest suite as large as my home. On balance it appears that the landed gentry are bored with buying stocks and bonds and find it far more gratifying to invest in something you can actually live in and show off to your fellow "Q" shareholders. The best news is that the folks moving into these $1 million-plus homes are most often trading up from the kind of homes that ordinary mortals can afford, and that’s good for the entire economy. Here's hoping that the good life in San Diego County continues. And that we don’t run out of estate lots — that would be a tragedy for our rapidly expanding and increasingly wealthy households. Mi casa es su casa, someday. Alan Nevin is director of economic research with Market Realty Advisors, a consultancy providing real estate and demographic statistics, feasibility studies and litigation support to the California land use industry and legal professions. |
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