This past month I attended a national research conference on real estate. The attendees were a compact group of 230 persons, all of whom earn their living by forecasting the state of the economy. Although that thought is frightening, the conference was enlightening, and surprisingly upbeat. That it was held at the magnificent Omni Flatirons Crossings resort near the ski resorts west of Denver may have heightened attendees’ moods.

The consensus was that the recession (if we are in one) will be short, and we will be back on course by spring. Here are more than a dozen reasons why:

• A tax cut is imminent.
• Banks are very healthy and their liquidity is admirable.
• Commercial real estate is modestly leveraged.
• Consumers still have an appetite to buy.
• Foreign dollars are pouring into the United States.
• Fuel prices are very low (except in San Diego).
• Funny money is mostly gone (i.e., leveraged buyouts).
• Household net worth is almost double that of a decade ago.
• Inflation is virtually nonexistent.
• Interest rates are unusually low and will stay that way for a while.
• Inventories of goods are very low.
• Most major corporations have modest debt.
• Pension funds continue to add $1 billion daily.
• The dollar is embarrassingly strong.
• The housing market remains remarkably strong.
• The money supply is under control, thanks to Dr. Greenspan.
• The population of the United States continues to expand on a dependable course.
• The stock market is stable and gently rising.
• Unemployment is very low compared to past recessions.
• War always has been good for the American economy.

That’s the national picture. How about locally? Everything above applies plus a few other positives:

• Our economy is on a roll and we probably will add 30,000 new jobs this year and next.
• Our unemployment rate remains at 3.5 percent, about as good as it gets.
• Our economy is wonderfully diverse, with no one employer accounting for more than 0.5 percent of all private-sector jobs.
• War, like it or not, has always been particularly good for San Diego, especially high-tech wars.

Now having said all that, let’s talk about why you should go out this weekend and buy a house.

The most obvious reason is that renting does nothing to build up your net worth. (Apologies to my apartment project-owning clients, all of whom, of course, own homes.) If you anticipate living to a ripe old age, you may want to have the equity in a home to fall back on. Besides, your kids are expecting you to leave them a bundle so they won’t have to work so hard and that won’t happen unless you own a home in coastal California.

Not to state the obvious, but let’s pretend you bought a home for $100,000 in San Diego 20 years ago. Based on our county-wide averages, that home today would be worth approximately $300,000, a not-so-insignificant tripling.

But let’s look at it on a leveraged basis: If you had placed a down payment of 20 percent, or $20,000, on that house in 1981, today, if you still have the original mortgage, you would owe $60,000 on the house. If you sell it, you would pocket, after brokerage commission, about $230,000 or 11 times’ return on your money. Better yet, you had a place to raise your family for the past two decades. That’s almost better than owning early shares of Qualcomm stock.

The second reason is that interest rates haven’t been this low since the Eisenhower years a half century ago. Short of being in a cell on death row, you should be able to qualify for a fixed or variable-rate loan. In the biz, they say that if you can fog a mirror, you qualify. Mortgage brokers and banks are thrilled to help you buy a house.

Your mortgage payments and property taxes are tax deductible. Your rent isn’t. Therefore, the government is helping you buy the house.

Many people think if we are in a recession there will be a glut of unsold housing. Wrong! This time around isn’t like last time. The number of listings has declined markedly in the past few months (ask your listing-desperate real estate agent). Folks, there won’t be blood running down the street. The equity buildup in the past few years means that very few folks have to sell, especially when they can refinance and pull out mega-dollars. Foreclosures are almost nonexistent.

New homes being sold today are on yesterday’s land — land very often acquired several years ago. That means homes to be built tomorrow will be on tomorrow’s increasingly expensive land and will be significantly more expensive.

Government talks a good game about helping out with home affordability, but the reality is the overwhelming crush of multiple anti-development government agencies virtually guarantees a permanent imbalance between supply and demand. For this reason, federal, state and local governments, along with the Sierra Club, ensure that your home will increase in value in coastal California. This is yet another example of how the government helps homeowners to build a stronger net worth.

The present wartime situation is causing construction lenders to slow down funding of new developments. That means that when the economy comes roaring back, the inventory of new homes will be much smaller than it should be. More imbalance between supply and demand is inevitable.

The last, but certainly not the least, reason is that home ownership provides stability for a family. The apartment renter turnover rate in San Diego County is more than 50 percent annually. Your renting neighbors come and go. The turnover rate in owner-occupied housing is 8 percent.

From a macro-economic standpoint, a very strong and direct correlation exists between home ownership, stable, low crime neighborhoods and family-supported high-quality schools. Riots in America never take place in neighborhoods where people own their own homes.

Go out and buy a house, condominium or apartment building. Just go out and buy something with a roof on it. Do it today. It’s just plain un-American to sit around renting when so many bankers and mortgage brokers are willing to foist an obscenely low interest home loan on you.

Alan Nevin is director of economic research with Market Point Realty Advisors, a consultancy providing real estate and demographic statistics, feasibility studies and litigation support to the California land use industry and legal professions.