If San Diegans could look into crystal balls, they would know what the next year will mean to Downtown housing development and sales. Without that magic, those in the know must rely on knowledge and experience to make such predictions. Several have done that, and the consensus is an extremely positive picture as more than 9,000 units in 60-plus developments become available within the next 36 months.

A hiccup in the economic status of Downtown housing is what developer Doug Wilson calls the market dip of the past few months. “In no way is this a repeat of the early ’90s,” says the only developer who continued with a project in the ballpark area when development there came to a standstill more than a year ago.

Wilson’s $60 million Parkloft housing project has moved along in spite of ballpark litigation, an economy that began slowing in early 2001 and the sluggish aftermath of the terrorist activities in September. That continued development reflects the optimism of an innovative and creative entrepreneur. Wilson’s first San Diego success was development of Symphony Towers, which led to his informal reputation as one who anticipates the market and knows when to get in — or out.

Wilson’s development company continued building Parkloft in the East Village, he says, “under the belief that the ballpark would be delayed but the whole silliness would be sorted out. Yes, I took some risk; I assessed it and went ahead.” Wilson is enthusiastic in his prediction that work on the ballpark will start soon and that it will spur on other East Village projects and greater employment in the building and operation of those projects.

“Prior to the events in September, the economy had already slowed,” he says. “Frankly, it has been slower in other parts of the country.” A self-described realist, Wilson points to several positive factors here: This time of “incredibly low interest rates,” a community where newly created jobs are bringing 50,000 new residents annually, and the inability to build enough units.

“We’ve been in a trough, and it will take a little time to get through it, but we will,” he says. Wilson is so optimistic that he soon will begin the second phase of his project, a $90 million development of 180 residential units to complement the 120 completed in the first phase. “These are hip urban lofts,” he says, “like something out of New York or San Francisco.”

While the housing market will flourish, Wilson says it’s harder to get financing now for new projects. Those already under way will be finished, “but others might not get going as easily; it will delay some, maybe up to a year.” But the long-term growth trend in San Diego will continue, he predicts, creating the need for the housing available and yet to be built.

Doug Austin, founder and principal of Austin Veum Robbins Parshalle, designer of several Downtown projects, concurs. “I haven’t heard that people have stopped buying,” he says, “and no one has pulled out of a project.” The only sign of slowdown he has seen are a couple of projects where a reduced size has been considered.

“The economic slowdown has impacted the corporate side more than housing,” he observes, but he expects the real test to come in a couple of years when more of the now-planned housing projects are completed.

Peter Hall, president of the Centre City Development Corp., expects Downtown housing to outperform any other market in the next few months. Following an immediate slowdown after the events in September, Downtown housing sales bounced right back and have remained good, he says. “Even high-end places are selling well,” he says, and that has continued into the traditionally slow period between Thanksgiving and early January.

“Certain forces are working favorably for San Diego,” Hall says, of Downtown and the city as a whole. “The city is building only 5,000 homes per year, and the demand greatly outstrips the supply.” In addition, about half of all city homebuilding is occurring Downtown.

Although Downtown housing is costly, Hall says, historically low interest rates result in more manageable monthly payments. Another financial incentive is a move to smaller homes with less maintenance, and the advantage of not having expenses of long commutes and auto upkeep. And, he says, a move to Downtown is seen by many as a “quality-of-life change. They are tired of stale communities, and this is a positive shift.”

The housing picture isn’t quite so rosy when Gregg Neuman of Prudential Southern California Real Estate looks at the resale market. “What I see is a slowdown,” he says, “a huge supply of housing coming onto the market, outstripping demand for a while.” One of the best indicators of that, says Neuman, is that developers are now cooperating with and paying commissions on sales to Realtors.

“Almost all of them are cooperating, and some are paying as much as 4 percent or 5 percent,” he says, well above the traditional 3 percent. Of buyers who were speculating and hoping to flip their units for a quick profit he says, “It won’t happen. They will be renting them or moving into them instead.” The top Prudential sales agent in the state and sixth highest nationally, Neuman expects prices to stay flat, but he says buying Downtown “is still a good investment.”

Developer/Realtor Jacqueline King, who focuses on redevelopment of existing structures for housing, is enthusiastic about Downtown’s future. The growth of the 1990s, she says, has created a market gap in all kinds of housing. King lives what she sells. She moved in 1991 to a CityFront unit overlooking Seaport Village, and enjoys what she calls a “paradise in progress” lifestyle.

She expects redevelopment of existing structures and historic renovation to provide additional options for Downtown dwellers who gravitate away from new building. “Redevelopment presents great opportunities,” she says, “that create an environment rich in entrepreneurial spirit.”

King sees the opportunities of the next several months as a time of creativity, much like what was present in the community with the development of Horton Plaza. She joins other housing experts in positive expectations for Downtown.

As Wilson says, “We pushed the pause button for a time. As the ballpark progresses, so will the surrounding development,” he says. “I firmly believe that.”