Even before the ballpark started construction again, we were going to write about the “miracle in the making,” but that blessed event is the whipped cream on the very tasty Downtown eclair.

The really monumental news Downtown is the status of the condominium market and the remarkable reception the public has accorded this first major burst of condominium development in a decade. In the past year or so, more than 600 escrows have been closed on newly offered urban condos. Horizons and CityFront Terrace each have more than 200 closings, with Olson’s Village Walk and Intracorp’s 235 on Market and Crown Bay each with 50-plus closings. On a slightly smaller scale, but still worthy of mention are the 17 very trendy rowhomes at Ninth Avenue and F Street designed by Kevin deFreitas, most of them already sold.

In addition, individuals are in escrow to purchase more than 1,000 other condominium units elsewhere Downtown. The three largest projects are TREO (328 units); Renaissance (200 units); and Park Place (187 units). Others with escrow lists include Pacific Terrace and Porto Siena by Intracorp; City Walk by Olson; Discovery by Bosa and the pride of the Ballpark District, Doug Wilson’s Parkloft.

Several other projects are now busily accepting reservations and will soon start converting these markers into non-refundable escrows. The two largest in this category are Citymark’s Doma and Western Pacific’s Union Square. Both of those projects are aimed at the youngish professional who works Downtown or nearby. This point is important because most of the units acquired to date are empty nester-occupied, often by couples who left suburbia after their grown children moved out. The empty nesters, by and large, have been paying upwards of $350 to $450 per square foot for their 1,000 to 2,000-square-foot condominiums, and some more; the typical Downtown unit sells for $350,000-plus.

On the edge of Downtown is a project that deserves mention here: the 94-unit Park Laurel at Sixth Avenue and Laurel Street. It is what all of Sixth Avenue across from Balboa Park should be about, but unfortunately isn’t. It is a stately two-tower luxury project with units ranging in size from 2,600 to 4,800 square feet and underpriced from $800,000 to $3 million. To date, half of the units in the first tower are in escrow. Site work is under way and Park Laurel will break ground shortly.

In offering commentary and analysis on the urban condominium scene, several scalawags (including a few of my worthy competitors) are forecasting a glut of high-priced Downtown condos. I can categorically state this is nonsense. Here’s why: By next spring, all of the high-rises under construction will be complete and essentially sold out. The next delivery of high-rise luxury units will be in the fourth quarter of 2004 or possibly the first quarter of 2005. In other words, between the near-term delivery of ParkLoft I, Renaissance II and Park Place, and the delivery of the two projects that haven’t broken ground yet (Pinnacle Tower and Santa Fe Tower I) there will be almost two years void of delivery in the market. Needless to say, that is just plain wonderful for the resale market, and of course for the owners of those units.

Also worth noting is the relatively large number of new moderately priced condominiums in the pipeline, although virtually none will be available for move-in until mid or late 2003. Most of them will be in Little Italy or East Village, and will be a combination of low-rise and high-rise. These units will better suit the value needs of the younger market, most of which parties Downtown but has to return to the ’burbs to sleep.

The apartment market outlook also is bright. The last rental project completed Downtown was in 1990, but that market, too, is rapidly changing. This year we will see the delivery of more than 500 new rental units Downtown, including the 230-unit wonderfully designed Heritage on Cortez Hill; the modernistic 150-unit 101 Market in the Marina District and the 115-unit 900 F in East Village (the former Jackson’s Hole of Pioneer Mortgage fame). All of those will be available for occupancy in the next few weeks. The net gain in apartments is still relatively small, as are the 320-unit CityFront Terraces converted from rental to condominiums, but it is still a start.

The only other projects to enter the market in the near-term future will be Camden’s handsome Tuscany in Little Italy and Scandia’s Mills at Cortez Hill.

Once those market-rate projects fill up, expect a large hiatus before the next round is ready for occupancy, as none of the announced projects have broken ground. Another hole in the market.

When you add all this action together, Downtown San Diego will have tripled its market-rate housing supply within a five-year period. Imagine the wonderful impact that will have on the restaurateurs, retailers and service providers Downtown. They have waited a long time for happiness, but now the wait will have been worthwhile. Tourism’s nice, but it doesn’t compare to having 10,000-plus wallets dependably opening day after day.

Also of importance are the several projects Downtown aimed at the senior and moderate-income crowd. They are the 280 living units project by Barone Galasso; the 200-unit Market Street Square by Chelsea and a 90-unit family project by Father Joe. All are in East Village. It is a start.

Overall, I am just plain delighted to see our new Downtown take shape. It will never be New York or San Francisco, but it will be a world-class high-density urban scene. Enjoy.

Alan Nevin is director of economic research with Marketpoint Realty Advisors, a consultancy providing real estate and demographic statistics, feasibility studies and litigation support to the California land use industry and legal professions.