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Handicapping The Recall Field |
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Cruz BustamanteCurrently the lieutenant governor, Bustamante’s position is that he’s against the recallthat is, he wants Davis to stay in officebut he wants to succeed him anyway. And why? So he can balance the state budget the same way Davis would—by raising taxes on “the rich.” In the case of the hated car tax, “the rich” would include anyone who has a car worth more than $20,000. The average new car sold today has a sticker price of about $25,000. But wait, there’s more. In a move reminiscent of Walter Mondale’s 1984 promise to raise taxes, Bustamante has introduced a taxing program called “Tough Love for California.” Which raises the question: what did California do to get taxed with “Tough Love” other than suffer through an administration where Bustamante himself is second in command? But unions, sensing that their Governor is hobbling off to the political glue factory, are backing Bustamante. If Bustamante wins, he should immediately be removed to Mt Everest for pulling off the greatest snow job of all time. Odds: 2:1. Gray DavisWhen he’s not busy pulling Bustamante’s knife out of his back, Davis tries to rally the unfaithful in scenes reminiscent of Richard Nixon’s final days in the White House. Having consulted with his new mentor Bill Clinton, Davis now blames his troubles on the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy responsible for impeachment, Florida, and Global Warming. It’s not working, so Davis must fall back on his political charm, which is roughly equivalent to a Politburo member in the former Soviet Union. But many Californians are enjoying watching the Sid Vicious of Modern Politics swallow his daily glass of Instant Karma, and Californians need all the entertainment we can get. Odds for recall: 7:5. Arnold SchwarzeneggerNow that the “shock and awe” phase of his campaign is over, Arnold’s dilemma is how to broaden his appeal to independents and Democrats and simultaneously reach out to conservatives who once supported Bill Simon and still support Tom McClintock. This would be a reach for a political novice, but Schwarzenegger is wearing the colors of the former Wilson stable, including Wilson himself as campaign chairman. Given the coalition he’s trying to build, Schwarzenegger can’t get too specific about his plans, and he could get caught in a buzz saw between conservatives who don’t like his position on abortion, among other things, and liberals who never did like Pete Wilson. Arnold’s executive instinct is to hire people to fix things, like Warren Buffett for the economy, or political operative Mike Murphy to turn him into John McCain. Buffett’s already teed off conservatives by suggesting that some homeowners need to pay more property tax. Even for an action hero, it’s a stretch, and if he can pull it off, he deserves a spot with the Flying Wallenda Brothers. Odds: 3:1. Tom McClintockwith a long track record in California politics, including running ahead of Simon in his bid to be Controller last year, McClintock is the race’s true conservative. The Thousand Oaks state senator is selling a vision of California “like it used to be,” and has a plan that calls for instant repeal of the car tax and across the board spending cuts. Polls fluctuate too wildly to be useful, but one survey showed McClintock approaching 20 percent. Unlike the Bustamante “no-yes” two-step, or Schwarzenegger’s really big tent strategy, McClintock’s campaign requires no finesse. Conservative voters know what they’re getting with McClintock, and like it. Plus, McClintock can count on close to 100 percent of his supporters actually voting. No wonder he’s scoffing at suggestions that he get out in favor of Arnold. If Davis can successfully slime Schwarzenegger (look for that effort to begin in earnest after Labor Day), McClintock becomes the last Republican standing. Then he’d have to prove he’s not Bill Simon. Sure bet: McClintock and Arnold are on a collision course, and there’s not enough room on the track for both. Odds: 10:1. Arianna HuffingtonWhy is it that every time I see her I start humming the theme from “Green Acres”? “L.A. is where I’d rather stay/ It’s not my fault that (ex-hubby) Michael’s gay.” Her latest gambit is a coalition with the Green Party. Odds: 50:1. AngelyneKnown primarily in L.A. for her photos that grace bus stops, the zaftig performer is one of roughly 130 vanity candidates in the California recall. But in a recent interview in the San Diego Union Tribune she showed unusual candor for a politician when asked to name her favorite TV show. “I don’t watch TV,” she said. “I’m a person that contributes culture to the people rather than having to sit there and watch everybody else’s culture.” At least she’s not selling “dates” to raise campaign funds like porn actress candidate Mary Carey, though come to think of it, that’s not unusual in politics. Vanity candidate odds: 1,000:1. Psssstdon’t tell anyone, but former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth is also running. He has about as much chance as Angelyne, so I bet he wants a job in a Schwarzenegger administration. But for now, his candidacy will be our little secret. Rich Acello is a syndicated columnist; you can reach him at richace@cox.net
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