A recent survey on San Diegans’ attitudes toward Tijuana and Mexico is off the mark, leading to media reports that once again help create a negative impression about our southern neighbors.

Here is what happened:

Over two days in early December, Competitive Edge, a private polling company, interviewed 405 people reached by randomly calling telephone numbers to various parts of the county. The majority of those contacted lived the farthest from the border. The 405 people interviewed were classified by age groups, ethnicity or race, income and ZIP code.

Because of budget constraints, other than questions to obtain the demographic information, survey takers asked only five opinion questions (each with a series of choices).

• “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Tijuana?” Responses were very and somewhat favorable (28.6 percent), neutral (26.2 percent), somewhat to very unfavorable (39.7 percent) and unsure (5.6 percent).
  
  
• “How often do you go to Tijuana?” The multiple choices were: Once a day (0.7 percent); once or twice per week (3 percent); once or twice per month (6.9 percent); once or twice per year (25.9 percent); less than once or twice per year (46.7 percent); or have you never been to Tijuana (11.9 percent). Amazingly, 4.9 percent were unsure or it varied too much.
  
  
• “What is your primary purpose for visiting Tijuana?” This question was only asked of those who on the previous question stated they visited at least once a year. Responses were 43.8 percent for recreation or travel; 34.4 percent to shop, eat or attend events; 7.4 percent to visit family or friends; 3.4 percent on business; 3.1 percent for medicine or health care; 0.6 percent for education; and other various reasons were 1.4 percent.
  
  
• “Do you want San Diego to develop: Closer business and cultural ties with Tijuana? (37 percent); Do you think ties between the two cities are close enough as it is? (45.7 percent); or, Do you think the ties between San Diego and Tijuana are too close? (10.9 percent); Unsure (17.8 percent).
  
  
• “In picturing what the border between San Diego and Tijuana could look like in the future, would you most like to see: A border similar to what we have today (30.4 percent), A more restrictive border with more U.S. government presence (45.7 percent), A more open border with less US government presence (17 percent), Unsure (6.9 percent).

While talking to 405 people in a county of more than 2.8 million is a pretty small sampling, it is statistically sufficient to get a fairly good idea of what people are thinking, considering the plus or minus margin of error in this case pegged at 4.9 percent. However, when considering the types of and limited number of questions asked and to then ascribe those findings across the board to all residents of the county, the poll leaves quite a bit to be desired. The questions are just too broad and simplistic to obtain an accurate picture.

For instance, a newspaper headline noted nearly 46 percent of those interviewed wanted tighter restrictions in the future. But did the respondents have in mind terrorist security? Illegal immigration? Drug smuggling? More inspectors at the gates? Or something else? The question was simply too broad and the answers recorded do not provide a clear picture of thought.

John Nienstedt, principal and chief executive of Competitive Edge noted on the cover page of the poll that Tijuana civic leaders might have a legitimate quarrel with the U.S. media’s portrayal of their city. Indeed, one article bore this out. While the poll indicates that 30.4 percent of respondents would choose a border similar to what we have today, 17 percent a more open border and 6.9 percent unsure, the newspaper highlighted the 45.7 percent of respondents who chose a more restrictive border. But the story just as easily could have noted that 47.4 percent of those who responded like the border just fine with some wanting less restrictions.

The low-budget poll had some limited multiple choice questions that drew answers that are good for opening debate, but not for sweeping conclusions.

Getting good answers is even harder when the group is broken down into categories. For instance, 43 respondents ages 18-24 were about 10 percent of the poll. Can this size group sufficiently represent that age category? The same question can be asked of each age bracket and then of each of the race and ethnic groups. Individual categories of interviews may not be sufficiently large to allow a conclusion within each sector.

The majority of those polled, 73.9 percent, live the farthest from the border. It is known that the greater the distance the less the frequency of visits, and adding the long wait to cross back to the equation, further restricts the desire to visit Tijuana. This is reflected on the “Never visited Tijuana” question chosen by 12 percent of respondents, with 58 percent of those being farthest from the border. And since they weren’t asked why they haven’t visited we don’t know.

Some of the poll’s findings either contradict, or are at odds with, other studies. For instance the Pablo Schneider thesis written in 1997 looked at border crossings to obtain medical services. It concludes that more than 3 million annual visits are made by San Diegans to obtain, in this order, prescription medicines, dental care and eye care. Other medical services sought include vanity care (plastic surgery, obesity surgery) and alternative medicine.

The San Diego Dialogue study conducted in 1993-94 also is at odds with this recent poll, as is a poll taken a few years ago by Channel 10 and a local radio station indicating that 50 percent of San Diegans had never visited Tijuana as opposed to only 12 percent in this poll. If since then 38 percent more San Diegans have visited Tijuana, then visitations are up remarkably.

Competitive Edge is a smart company. It is my hope in the future someone will invest with the firm enough money to conduct a more in-depth poll, one that is sorely needed and of great importance to both San Diego and Tijuana.

Patrick Osio Jr. can be reached at posiojr@sandiegometro.com. The veteran consultant also has issued The Mexican Perspective, an intensive primer on business culture and protocol. Copies are available at http://www.hispanicvista.com/sales/book_sale.htm.