Last year, an honest-to-goodness optimist declared to me, “Today is a good day.” What? The economy was in the dumps, unemployment rising, manufacturing falling, the stock market sinking and retail sales sliding. What the heck was so good about that day? His reply? “Well, things will be worse tomorrow, so in comparison today is a good day.” Hmm. He better report at the end of this year that it was better than 2003, and that 2005 will be even better — or I’ll publish his name.

As is now custom on these pages, January is a time to look at what binational projects or issues we will face that could be economic opportunities or impediments.

A review of prior forecasts, while preparing for this one, made me say “Ouch.” Unforeseen events, and the resulting changes in conditions and attitudes they deliver, have a way of humbling those who prophesy for publication.

The major impediment I have foreseen year in and year out is the long border crossing time and its negative economic effects on both sides of the border. This plague remains with us but now is exacerbated by the new and primary issue of border security.

Still accurate is a year 2000 suggestion that San Diego’s search for an airport solution will remain unresolved for the next 30 years. Not accurate is my projection we would become more dependent on the Tijuana airport. Oops. It hasn’t happened yet, but still could. The bridge-connecting terminal annex proposed on Otay Mesa to the Tijuana airport remains alive and moving forward ever so slowly.

Also projected was Sempra providing electrical power to Tijuana, Tecate and Rosarito. It is not yet doable as Mexico has gotten bogged down in Washington-style politics since ousting the PRI from power. The still-powerful PRI is blocking the needed constitutional changes to allow private sector companies to provide direct energy to consumers. But Sempra has obtained needed permits to build a plant for conversion of liquefied gas to natural gas, and might eventually, if it survives the court challenges, provide gas to both Baja and San Diego. That’s progress.

Then there was the suggestion that San Diego and Baja California would reach agreement on water transport from the Colorado River. That one is a dead issue; won’t happen.

But the railroad from San Diego Port through Tijuana-Tecate and back into California is coming to pass, just under a different name. The Carrizo Gorge Railway opens this year, allowing freight from San Diego and Baja to move east without having to pass through Los Angeles. In a few years this will be acknowledged as a huge regional economic stimulus.

My safest prophecy was that Roger Hedgecock would continue to criticize Mexico as long as he was on the radio; give me a big star on that one.

What about 2004? A real toughie. Will the U.S. economy really rebound? Some indicators say “yes.” But it also is a political year, nationally and locally. Politics often throws monkey wrenches into some otherwise good predictions and intentions.

In 2004, politics and policies will continue to influence our binational community.

San Diego is a cargo-truck transportation corridor for more than 86 percent (nearly $15 billion) of products sold to California’s biggest trading partner, Mexico. Envision the state as a funnel with the bottom end pouring into the Otay Mesa commercial port of entry. The counties of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino send most of the 86 percent. All of it comes by way of Interstate 5 or Interstate 15, winding up on Highway 905 to the Otay crossing, the same destination of trucks from Mexico with cargo destined for regions far beyond San Diego.

Here is the problem. Time and again funding to complete the 905 has either been delayed or reduced. The corridor cannot accommodate the number of trucks now, let alone the increase a better economy will bring. From a commercial standpoint delays in commerce will have a severe economic impact on the state, not just San Diego. Yet the issue is viewed as a South County problem, so it gets lip-service support from those who manage the TransNet funds.

TransNet? Oh, that’s the 20-year half-cent sales tax San Diego voters approved in 1987 that expires in 2008. Its purpose is funding regional transportation needs, like the 905. In 2004, an extension of the tax will appear on the ballot. Will San Diegans approve? If so, will funds be made available to quickly complete the 905? I’m not optimistic.

Then there is the U.S. entry/exit program establishing an automated entry/exit system including biometric identifiers scheduled to begin on Jan. 1, 2005. However, the technology is not yet available; personnel not hired. The technology and equipment contracts won’t be released until mid-2004 and I doubt the government can sign deals and get the operation up and running in so short a time. If the law remains and technology lags, border crossing waits, both ways, will reach four hours or more. That’s the equivalent of paralyzing the border.

Finally, one state senate seat, all the local assembly and congressional seats and the San Diego mayor’s office will be contested. The candidates’ positions on these and other border issues, and their ability to follow through, will be felt on the border not only 2004, but well into the future.