This column almost always focuses exclusively on real estate. But this time you get a break from that tedium. Instead, we’ll talk about something really exciting: jobs. We have them and we’re getting more.

Let’s start out with a snapshot of San Diego County’s economy. We have 1,447,700 civilian jobs in addition to a bit more than 120,000 persons in uniform. Since 2000 we have gained 103,300 civilian jobs, fully one-fifth of all the jobs gained in the nation.

Our unemployment rate is 3.8 percent compared to 5.8 percent in California and 5.6 percent nationwide. It is not quite as low as the 2.9 percent that we had in 2001, but it still is something to crow about.

To what do we owe our good fortune? The answer is a combination of many basic industries gaining strength and no one basic industry falling on hard times as has happened in the past. (A basic industry is one that derives most of its revenues from outside its metropolitan area. In San Diego, that’s the military, tourism, manufacturing, high-tech/biotech/telecom, the university system, import/export and much of the business services employment.)

Most folks immediately focus on manufacturing as the bellwether of our economy. Our manufacturing base accounts for fewer than 8 percent of our wage and salary jobs. Yes, we have lost 18,300 or 14.8 percent of those manufacturing jobs since the beginning of our downturn, but I must point out that our track record is much better than those of either California or the nation. The United States as a whole lost 20 percent of its manufacturing jobs and California 16.7 percent. Our comparatively light loss is due to the diversity of our manufacturing base.

We have numerous sub-areas of manufacturing, including electrical equipment, machinery, computer peripherals and telecommunications equipment. A major portion of the manufacturing is sophisticated and high-tech.

The other two industries that make up our “big three” in terms of basic jobs are tourism and the military. Tourism is on a roll. Employment is up 11.4 percent since 2000, a period that includes riding out the dramatic post Sept. 11 travel slowdown. In the past year, visitor spending is up 6 percent, airport arrivals up 8.6 percent and hotel occupancy is up 5 percent. Our occupancy rate of 72.4 percent is the third highest in the nation (Las Vegas is always No. 1). This summer should be a bonanza, thanks to the Midway, the new thrill ride at SeaWorld, Petco Park, additional cruise ships and the overall recovery of the economy.

The military is chugging right along. It may be insensitive to say this, but war has always been good for San Diego. Our county is No. 1 in Department of Defense payroll, with $4.3 billion annually, half of total expenditures in California. In terms of procurement contracts, we rank No. 3 in the nation, lagging only behind Los Angeles and Fairfax County, Va.

Other industries that have a positive bent are our university system — with major expansion and construction underway at UCSD, despite what you hear about tight budgets — and import/export and financial services.

JOB CATEGORY	MAY 2000	MAY 2004	CHANGE	% CHANGE
WINNERS
CONSTRUCTION	68,200	87,200	9,000	27.9%
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY	129,600	144,100	14,500	11.2%
RETAILING	131,100	139,900	8,800	6.7%
FINANCIAL SERVICES	71,100	83,200	12,100	17.0%
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES	191,900	201,300	9,400	4.9%
EDUCATIONAL & HEALTH SERVICES	115,600	125,400	9,800	8.5%
LOSERS
MANUFACTURING	123,400	105,100	-18,300	-14.8%
INFORMATION/TELECOM	40,300	36,300	-4,000	-9.9%
GOVERNMENT	213,500	221,600	8,100	3.8%
Source: California EDD and Market Pointe Realty Advisors 6.04

Where’s the weak point? Let me venture to say that our manufacturing decline has leveled off as has the decline in telecommunications. There appears to be no other industry in the county that has been in a declining mode.

The truly big winner in the job market is construction, up 27.9 percent in the past four years. A strong job gain of 19,000. And that, of course, leads me back to real estate (it was inevitable).

In most of our past economic recoveries we have gained more than 50,000 jobs annually. Currently, we’re only moving forward at half that pace. Yet, in those past four years, despite a weak economy, our home demand has outstripped any period in the past half century and our home prices have accelerated to obscene values.

The question inevitably arises: What would happen in our county if employment began to accelerate as it has after every other recession? What if we once again produce 50,000 new jobs a year? There’s no doubt that we cannot produce more homes than we do now (we just can’t produce the lots) and the ones we have are all occupied. In other words, our standing inventory of homes is negligible.

Is it possible, therefore, that the absurdity of the prices now extant might just be a preview of what could happen if new jobs accelerate and more folks from other metropolitan areas pile in as they have in every other recovery?

Is this the time to buy that little home in El Centro that you’ve always wanted? Or maybe sell out? Move to Vegas or Phoenix (Summer’s the perfect time to move there.)? Pocket the difference. Live big again.

I feel like the mad scientist who has engineered a massive train wreck. Two trains on the same rail heading toward each other at full speed. In this case, thousands of home-seekers heading toward the same limited supply of housing. Something has to give.

Stay tuned.

Alan N. Nevin is director of economic research with MarketPointe Realty Advisors (marketpointe.com), a consultancy providing real estate and demographic statistics, feasibility studies and litigation support to the California land use industry and legal professions. Nevin can be reached by e-mail at anevin@sandiegometro.com.