It is impossible to know the Department of Defense’s precise intentions when it comes to BRAC 2005. The infrastructure reshuffling and closure is designed to support the military of the future. And with the military notoriously, and by necessity, secretive about those plans, the best anyone can do is provide educated speculation.

In a detailed report to the city of San Diego and the San Diego Regional Economic Development Corp., consultant Bill Cassidy highlights four support functions and three bases that seem likely to be discussed.

For the support functions, the criteria call for reducing or eliminating duplicative and overlapping activities.

Support functions in San Diego in potential jeopardy include NADEP North Island, SPAWAR, PEO C4I/Space and SSC San Diego.

For these functions, Cassidy recommends advancing arguments based on the quality of the work performed. Also, San Diego needs to emphasize its ability to absorb similar work now being performed elsewhere.

• Naval Air Depot North Island covers 358 acres, is the largest tenant on the base and employs about 3,500 civilians. It has the capacity to perform major maintenance on 200 aircraft and 35,000 components a year. The twin threats facing the depot are consolidating some of its activities with the two other depots in the country and privatization.
  
  
• SPAWAR, PEO C4I/Space and SSC San Diego are discussed on Page 42.
  
  
• Military Bases in jeopardy include Submarine Squadron Eleven, the Marine Corps Recruit Depot and the Naval Health Research Center.
  
  
• Submarine Squadron Eleven is home to five Los Angeles class attack subs tasked with seeking and destroying enemy submarines and ships. The number of subs here is down from 1995 and the Defense Department could decide Squad Eleven should join the rest of the team at Pearl Harbor. Moving Squad Eleven also means the likely closure of four other related sub operations between San Diego and Washington.
  
  
• The 506-acre Marine Corps Recruit Depot employees 1,725 Marines (500 are drill instructors) and sailors and 906 civilians. About 16,000 recruits each year graduate from a 12-week boot camp that features seven weeks at MCRD, four at Camp Pendleton and the last week back at MCRD for final testing and graduation. The annual payroll is $131.4 million. The primary threat appears to be moving the operation to MCRD Parris Island in South Carolina, although relocating it to Camp Pendleton is possible.
  
  
• Naval Health Research Center recruits research subjects from military personnel and collects biomedical data from them. Much of its research focuses on shipboard delivery of health care. In the 1995 round of BRAC, the center was recommended for closure and its necessary functions relocated. The BRAC Commission then disagreed.