Most cities in San Diego County have had a certain amount of glory, if only for their allotted 15 minutes of fame. The city of San Diego has had more than its share of late. Then there’s National City, a city that rarely gets mentioned in the dailies but quietly has been preparing itself for glory.
The city of 56,000 residents is known for its Mile of Cars, a remarkably dependable source of tax revenue. Some two dozen brands of new autos are sold along a strip of National City Boulevard, providing a lucrative cash cow for the city. The first dealer showed up in the early 1920s and the industry has been expanding since.
The second source of tax revenue is Plaza Bonita, a Westfield-owned shopping mall in the early planning stages of a massive renovation. The big win will be the development of two new major stores: a Target and a Costco, one on top of the other. In addition, a new outdoor food court on the other end of the center will be developed. The center’s revenue will likely double.
Although it hasn’t received much publicity, the new Marina Gateway project will put National City’s waterfront on the map. In addition to the new marina, the Sycuan Tribe has committed to building a luxury 120-plus-room hotel on the adjacent waterfront along with a restaurant, a conference center and possibly a farmers market. No gaming, for now.
Still another fascinating project is the new 100,000-square-foot National City Education Village in the heart of downtown National City. Designed to serve 8,000 students, the venture will host classrooms and laboratories for Southwestern College, San Diego State University, UC San Diego and the San Diego County Office of Education. The village includes 36,000 square feet of commercial/retail space. A 300-seat multipurpose center for theater, auditorium, video conference and other uses is included.
Last year, Mayor Nick Inzunza and the city council set 10 goals for National City. The first was to build a Wal-Mart (cha-ching). That store is now up and operating. They also wanted to build a new fire station and public library. Both are under construction.
One of the other goals was to build a new downtown and there’s a good chance it will happen. The good news is that National City starts with a clean slate. Perhaps the first residential happening will be the conversion of Pacifica’s Red Lion Inn into condominiums. And then there are two more new residential projects in planning: a low-rise and a mid-rise. Both would be breaking new ground, so to speak, as National City’s downtown has built no new multi-family housing in decades.
In essence, National City’s downtown could become a mini-downtown San Diego, albeit with slightly lower prices. The trolley and buses place downtown National City within a 15- to 20-minute ride of Downtown San Diego. The location also could entice that element of the housing force which would welcome a chance to buy housing near Downtown San Diego but can’t afford Downtown San Diego. Somewhat like the Oakland second city role to San Francisco.
Outside of downtown, the city is strongly encouraging local developers to build market-rate housing. The first to rise to the occasion is the Olson Co. that has two townhome projects under way. Both projects are priced in the $400,000 range, and guess what? the public is buying. One is sold out and the other is nearly sold out. Doubters take note: the Olson projects are selling for the same dollar per square foot as condominium projects in the more upscale Otay Ranch/EastLake area of Chula Vista.
Because National City isn’t flush with developable land, the city will encourage higher-density sale housing. It also is encouraging condominium conversions in an effort to revitalize the housing stock and, of equal importance, to bring the city’s owner/renter ratio more in line with the rest of the county.
National City has the highest ratio of renters in San Diego County: nearly 65 percent. In the rest of the county, the average is about 40 percent. The implications of this push of for-sale housing are many. First, occupants of rental housing are typically at a lower income level than owners. More owners means more spending on retail goods and services and at the Mile of Cars. Second, it means that the property and sales tax revenues to the city will increase, creating more funds for public services, schools and more affordable housing.
“Affordable housing” is worthy of special attention because National City is the county champ in that respect, with almost 19 percent of its housing stock fitting into that category. Now it’s time for National City to do its balancing act, that is, balance the housing supply by adding several thousand for-sale units (not all in 2005, mind you).
Overall, National City has the opportunity to put itself on the map over the next few years. And for those who enjoy the gentrification process, it might not be a bad idea to look at the single-family homes in National City. Average resale price: $379,000 compared to the countywide $645,619. Lots of opportunities there. Tidy neighborhoods. Nice houses. Maybe it’s the next North Park or Golden Hill. Take a look for yourself.
National City. It’s in your Thomas Guide.
Alan N. Nevin is director of economic research with MarketPointe Realty Advisors (marketpointe.com), a consultancy providing real estate and demographic statistics, feasibility studies and litigation support to the California land use industry and legal professions. Nevin can be reached by e-mail at anevin@sandiegometro.com.

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