It’s hard to believe that six years ago Vincente Fox toppled the PRI’s 71-year rule to win the Mexican presidency. In 2006, Mexicans again will go to the polls to elect their new president and the outcome, like the one in 2000, will have considerable significance for the San Diego region.

Who wins the election will determine the economic and political direction Mexico takes during the next six years and possibly well beyond. While there are eight (as of this writing) political parties in Mexico, only three major parties are contenders. At this point, polls have the three almost dead even. The elections are July 2 with the new president taking office in December.

Here are the main candidates:

• Felipe Calderon for the PAN (Fox’s party), who served as secretary of energy and has a master’s degree from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He is considered brilliant, a very able politician and an outstanding public speaker.
  
  
• Roberto Madrazo for the PRI, a former governor and president of the PRI party, he is an attorney and attended UCLA where he studied urbanization. He is acknowledged as the savior of the PRI after the loss of the presidency in 2000, but is considered corrupt by many a member of the PRI and his election to the governorship was fraught with controversy. His stint as PRI party president was marred by political hacking, destroying all opposition to his eventual presidential candidacy. He is considered a brilliant political strategist and able to form alliances to gain objectives, but he also is capable of turning on his allies.
  
  
• Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador for the PRD (the press refers to him by his initials, AMLO). A former member of the left wing of the PRI, he served as the Tabasco PRI state president. AMLO lost the Tabasco governor’s (questionable) election to Madrazo. He went on to win the Mexico City mayor’s office, regarded in importance second only to the presidency. He is a populist politician appealing to the poor and lower middle classes that make up the majority of the Mexican population. As mayor he initiated paying stipends to the poor and elderly that together with his fiery brand of rhetoric on behalf of the poor have made him immensely popular. He has led the polls for the presidency since before he declared his candidacy, although his lead has diminished since he resigned to campaign. (In Mexico, candidates cannot hold public office.)

A Calderon win would signal a continuation of economic and political reforms that eventually will lead to the betterment of Mexican citizens. But we live in an era of immediate gratification expectations, and since Fox did not fully deliver on both of those counts, the question is whether the electorate will give Calderon a chance to continue. Madrazo can win with the alliances he is forging with minor parties, as the expectation is that none of the candidates will win an absolute majority of the vote. If such is the case, the question is whether Mexico will revert to a one-party dictatorship as the PRI enjoyed for seven decades and slip back into corruption as the usual type of government.

An AMLO win brings with it the biggest questions. Is he of the same ilk as Hugo Chavez of Venezuela or even Fidel Castro of Cuba? (He denies it.) Would his tenure bring about radical economic changes that would offset gains being made and scare off foreign investment? AMLO would not likely be as radical as some fear because the support of the poor without the support of the business community, financial institutions and most importantly, the military (which he does not have) would doom radical changes. He probably would bring attention to the plight of the poor and institute changes that would set in motion their betterment, as long as he does not scare off the needed investment from both national and international investors.

Assuming that Mexican voters and the eventual presidential winner do not upset the cart, we can look forward during 2006 to further economic improvement in Baja California. This will continue to be led by housing construction both for working Mexicans and visitor related and retirement housing mostly aimed at the Southern California market.

Because of the high prices of real estate in California, Baja has become a prime location for second and retirement housing available at much lower cost.

During 2004, more than 20,000 homes worth in excess of $4 billion have been sold to Americans along the Pacific Ocean and Sea of Cortes.

An obstacle to even greater sales has been the lack of financing, which is about to be resolved as U.S. lenders move more aggressively into the field. Previously, these institutions would provide funds only if the U.S. buyer of Mexican real estate had U.S. collateral. This requirement is going out the window, which in turn opens the door for a far greater volume of sales.

The Tijuana maquiladora industry also posted gains during 2004 and expects an increase in manufacturing and hiring as long as the U.S. doesn’t slide into a recession.

So 2006 should be a good year, maybe even a banner year, provided our Mexican neighbors stay the course.

Patrick Osio Jr. can be reached at posiojr@sandiegometro.com. The veteran consultant also has issued The Mexican Perspective, an intensive primer on business culture and protocol. Copies are available at http://www.hispanicvista.com/sales/book_sale.htm.