In most of the United States, 70 percent of folks own their own home. Here, it is about 55 percent and very slowly moving upward. With low interest rates, new condominium construction and the conversion of apartments to condominiums, we are gradually creeping up in home ownership.
Unfortunately, due to our enduring and restrictive government regulations on land use, we can’t quite find enough land or lots to achieve a supply/demand balance. For that reason, our land and lots have accelerated in price dramatically over the past few years. The result is new detached homes sell for an average of more than $800,000 and new condominiums average more than $500,000. Fortunately, conversions are still reasonably priced and that has been a blessing for first-time buyers, although the supply of newly converted condominiums is waning.
San Diego County’s apartment industry plays a crucial role in housing our population. Apartments satisfy the shelter needs of the four types of renters: lifetime renters (estimated to be a third of all households), households who are destined to be homeowners in the future, persons who are suddenly displaced from for-sale housing (the divorce/separation market) and households here on temporary duty (military, students, et al).
In San Diego County, only 10 percent of adult owner-occupants are under age 35. For renters, 42 percent are that age or younger. Pointedly, most renters are young and often have not reached their peak earning years.
The regional apartment supply is about 350,000 units, excluding rental condominiums and single-family homes.
Rental projects are typically segmented into “A”/“B” quality or “C” quality and below. The vast supply of apartments in the county are “C” quality or below, more than 40 years old and typically in mediocre condition.
Apartments are not a terribly stable market. Turnover countywide remains in the 60 percent to 70 percent range, which means if you have a 100-unit project, there’s a fair chance that six to eight move-outs occur each month. The market is fluid, to say the least, but it is better than Las Vegas, where turnover is about 100 percent annually and a quarter of the tenants use rental furniture.
San Diego’s high turnover rate is possible because the supply of available units is adequate for the market. In tight markets, you find that turnover is much less. In New York City, Washington, D.C., London and Paris, for example, it is not uncommon for renters to remain in the same apartment for decades.
San Diego’s apartment market is just about right. Vacancy rates are in the 4 percent to 5 percent range, maybe a little softer. The economics of apartments are very dependable. When vacancies are in the 5 percent range, rents barely move up. When they increase to 6 percent they don’t move up at all and when they drop to 4 percent rents jump 3 percent to 5 percent.
Most property managers in San Diego report one-fourth of their move-outs are doing so to buy a home.
In the past five years, about 15,000 apartment units have been converted to condominiums. As 75 percent of conversion units are bought by former local renters, conversions are a good thing for the economy. What is happening is that we are moving from a rental society to an ownership one. That is the American dream.
The unfortunate byproduct is the displacement with conversions since fewer than 5 percent of renters buy their own unit when a project goes condo. That is a shame. In many markets, the figure is much higher. In the first project I converted in this county, 75 percent of the 108 renters bought their own unit.
Today, when those nonowners hit the rental market they face a supply problem in terms of new apartments. With condominium development outpacing single-family construction, multifamily land zoned for apartments is being gobbled up. As condominium developers can often pay twice what a rental apartment developer can afford, little multifamily land remains available for development.
And when that land is acquired for apartment development, the apartments are inevitably very nice but very expensive. In San Diego, the typical apartment rents for $1.42 per square foot. To be financially feasible, new apartments must rent for $2-plus per square foot, and far more Downtown. Thus, an existing 700-square-foot apartment averages almost $1,000 and a new suburban one $1,400.
To produce more apartments for the region would take bureaucratic creativity. For instance, the city of San Diego owns hundreds of parcels it could zone for multifamily units. The city also could create apartment-only zoning. Right now multifamily land can be used for both condominiums and apartments. A third way is for the cities to offer lower development fees for apartments. In the city of San Diego, a $5 million home pays the same hook-up charges as a 400-square-foot studio. It also has the same parking ratios, even though there are far fewer cars per household in rental units. The list of ways to induce apartment construction is far too long to discuss here, but if local governments want to produce market-rate rental housing, they could turn on the spigot. But they choose not to maybe because renters don’t vote as much as owners.
For you apartment owners out there, or wannabe owners, San Diego County remains one of the most favored metropolitan areas in the nation. It is routinely rated in the top five for apartment ownership. The reason is basic: we’re growing and our apartment supply is not, while the potential for most renters to acquire a home borders on dismal.
When I bought my first San Diego apartment project in the 1970s, the price paid was $23,000 per unit. Now the government fees alone on new apartment construction are often far more than that per unit. The lesson, of course, is buy now and hold on for the long term. And go ahead and put a condominium map on it. Someday somebody may want to convert your property. There are, after all, 360,000 apartment units in the county that haven’t been converted yet. Yours might be a lucky one.
Overall, San Diego continues to be a favored child of the national and international investment market and not a bad place to live. I don’t think that I would sell out and move to Yuma just yet.
Alan N. Nevin is director of economic research with MarketPointe Realty Advisors (marketpointe.com), a consultancy providing real estate and demographic statistics, feasibility studies and litigation support to the California land use industry and legal professions. Nevin can be reached by e-mail at anevin@sandiegometro.com.

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