Historically, Baja California is visited each year by more than 20 million people. The Baja Secretary of Tourism office reports 3 million are Mexican nationals and 17 million from other countries, with the greatest percentage from the United States. Of those from the U.S., the largest numbers are from Southern California. Last year, due to personal security fears, the number of visitors declined by more than 3 million.

The relatively small number of tourist-reported crimes — most are petty larceny or police shakedowns — are nevertheless shaking Baja’s economy. It is true that most crimes against tourists go unreported, but even factoring in a high 5- or 6-to-1 ratio, the total number of incidents would only be about 1,000. At that level, one of every 20,000 visitors would be a victim.

However, ratios are understandably immaterial to victims. And from the standpoint of the news media, many of the individual crimes are worthy of coverage, a situation that then fuels fears for personal safety among potential visitors. People simply stop visiting.

Such fears are natural, of course, like those inspired by a shark attack at a local beach. Never mind that from 1900 to 2007 a total of eight deaths were attributed to shark attacks along the California coast. When one sees news coverage about an attack, swimmers clear out — sharks can’t attack on land. Yet in time, memory fades and swimmers go back.

Mexico’s drug cartels have intimidated entire regions with their “we have a deal you can’t refuse” approach, which is bluntly “take the money or be killed.” The unfortunate truth is that too many public officials and law enforcement officers have taken the money before even hearing the second part of the offer.

Soon after taking office, President Felipe Calderon declared war on organized crime and began sending troops to various hot spots across the nation, Tijuana included. For a time, this seemed to ease the problems, at least in Tijuana, while exacerbating it in other parts of Mexico as the cartels fought back.

In Baja California, indifference and lack of political will by the state and municipal governments to join in President Calderon’s all out effort led to an electoral revolt that denied the governorship to the Tijuana mayor, and elected an opposition party mayor in Tijuana and Rosarito Beach.

Tijuana’s problems with crime are different from those faced in Rosarito. In Tijuana it has been the drug cartels fighting each other, with local citizens getting caught on occasion in the crossfire. Few times have American visitors been even remotely close to the action.

Rosarito’s new mayor, Hugo Torres, correctly identifies that for American tourists the biggest problem his municipality faces is police shakedowns, and rogue gangs in which some of his officers were members. The cartels fighting back against the new commitment to eradicate them are aiming at the new public figures Torres has picked to carry the war to them. Thus far, neither Torres nor his appointees are backing down.

Upon taking office in December, the new state governor, Jose Guadalupe Osuna Millan, joined with President Calderon in the war against crime, as has Tijuana’s new mayor, Jorge Ramos, and Rosarito Beach’s Torres. The drug cartels have decided to fight back and those battles are, and will remain, media fodder.

What is being witnessed seems to resemble a bygone chapter of U.S. history. The Prohibition era gave rise to organized crime fighting for pieces of territory. The “drug” was liquor smuggled into the East Coast through Canada and for parts of the Midwest and West through Mexico. Gang members killed both rivals and policemen. Bribery was rampant, and civilians were casualties. Police shakedowns were part of life in Chicago, New York, New Jersey, Louisiana and numerous other places. This is what is taking place now in Mexico.

Mexico, as long as the political will continues and community support is maintained, will eventually win and things will go back to normal.

So far, little has been heard from the American expatriate community living along the Pacific from Tijuana to Rosarito. Do they sense their security and safety are in danger?

To get a first-hand account for an upcoming documentary, I have so far interviewed 12 American retirees who live along the Baja coast. The subjects originally hailed from Illinois, New York, Nevada, Hawaii, Washington, California and Arizona. All have been living in Baja from several months to several years.

No one has expressed a fear for their security or safety. Most say news coverage is far more sensational than the actual events and dangers faced by Americans.

Meanwhile, Mexican citizens suffer and American visitors in large numbers stay home.

Patrick Osio Jr. can be reached at posiojr@sandiegometro.com. The veteran consultant also has issued The Mexican Perspective, an intensive primer on business culture and protocol. Copies are available at hispanicvista.com/sales/book_sale.htm.