Paul Jablonski

The need for more public transportation in downtown has never been greater. Consider these facts:

• The city of San Diego’s Downtown Community Plan predicts that population will more than triple from 27,500 in 2004 to 89,100 in 2030.
  
  
• In the same time frame, the community plan estimates that Downtown employment will more than double from 74,500 to 167,700.
  
  
• Hotel rooms are expected to jump from 8,800 to 20,000.
  
  
• Office space will double to more than 22 million square feet, cultural and education facilities will increase by a million square feet and retail will double to more than 6 million square feet.

Yes, these estimates were made in 2004 at the height of the real estate boom, before gas prices skyrocketed and before Wall Street began to teeter. But market cycles aside, I think we can all agree that Downtown San Diego will continue to grow at a fairly rapid pace over the long term.

And, with gas prices at near-record highs, ridership in July on MTS climbed by almost 11 percent on all services combined and it was up by 15 percent on our bus system. We don;t have to wait until 2030 to experience increased demand for public transportation.

Downtown;s future and public transportation are inseparable. A June 2008 study produced for the Center City Development Corp. concludes the following:

• Without a more robust public transit system, peak-hour automobile traffic would be 60,000, which is 20,000 more cars than Downtown’s roads are designed to handle.
  
  
• San Diego would have to build 30 percent more roads leading to Downtown. Even with this road building project, congestion would increase.
  
  
• There would be the need for 25,000 more parking spaces. At the accepted rate of $40,000 per space, that’s a $1 billion investment for parking alone!
  
  
• Absent these improvements, growth would stagnate.
  
  
• To achieve the above goal, about 48 percent of peak hour commuters will need to arrive Downtown via transit. Today, that number is only about 23 percent. For downtown to work in an efficient and sustainable way, the number of transit riders should increase from 15,000 to about 48,000 during peak hours.
  
  
• The way to implement balanced and sustainable growth, according to the report, is to make a strong political, financial and institutional commitment to transit improvements. Increasing public transportation use to this intensity Downtown is not impossible. If it can be achieved in places like Vancouver and Pittsburgh, it can be achieved here. How?

Commitment and money is difficult; designing a system to handle the increased capacity isn’t. Redeveloping C Street to accommodate longer trolley trains is crucial. Adding commuter express services and establishing an extensive bus rapid transit network of services also is a key. Dedicating streets or lanes to exclusive bus use is a method to increase capacity. A single bus can carry 60 people in about the same space as five cars carrying five people. Double tracking Coaster and Amtrak rails on the coast would enable increased frequencies. Adding to the number of buses in all of our major corridors to bring frequencies up to 10 minutes or better would allow people to depend on transit without referring to timetables.

Some of these projects are in the planning stages and will be improving public transportation services to Downtown in the near future. They include:

• Commuter Express service along the I-15 corridor to Downtown will be expanded to all day service by 2012.
  
  
• The bus rapid transit demonstration project from SDSU to Downtown via El Cajon Boulevard will be up and running in the next few years.
  
  
• CCDC has begun exploring options for C Street redevelopment that will accommodate longer trolleys.
  
  
• Concurrently, MTS is exploring options to produce a shorter low-floor trolley vehicle to accommodate the shorter block lengths on C Street.
  
  
• MTS also is setting aside capital to purchase low-floor trolley cars to serve throughout its system.
  
  
• New CNG-powered articulated buses will soon operate Downtown replacing diesel models long past their operating prime.
  
  
• New bus shelters with unique designs will enhance the streetscape and ambiance of the system over the next five years.
  
  
• A privately funded vintage trolley line may operate on a continuous Downtown loop.

Projects with more far-reaching impact as discussed earlier are not as likely to happen any time soon. Public transportation, despite high voter approval and obvious demand, is not considered a high priority by enough elected officials and stakeholders.

Gov. Schwarzenegger diverted $1.7 billion away from the public transportation to balance the state budget. That cost MTS over $50 million this year. Over the last two years, the governor’s balancing act has not played well for MTS. At least $100 million has been diverted. This comes at a time when transit demand is increasing significantly. This money could go a long way to realizing the goals spelled out in the Downtown Community Plan.

Downtown’s future can be great. To achieve the vision, elected officials, business leaders and other stakeholders need to elevate public transportation as a priority. Increased use of public transportation by all sectors is the only way Downtown can continue to grow and, at the same time, protect and enhance its reputation as a distinctive and world class Downtown.

Paul Jablonski is chief executive officer of the Metropolitan Transit System.